This weekend I projected unemployment data from the 2006 Census onto a map of Halifax.  I won’t say much about this topic because its subject matter lies well beyond my area of expertise; although I’m willing to make broad assumptions about population growth, I don’t want to speak too much about employment numbers lest some one quotes me on it.  (I see you in my site statistics, all you high school and jr. high kids logging in from ednet.ns.ca addresses – remember to click to the census data and cite them for your projects!)

First, some observations on the projection.  The unemployment figures for Halifax’s 88 Census Tracts ranged from 2.1% in Fairview (Tract 205.0017.00, south of Hwy 102 and north of the St. Margaret’s Bay Road) to 12.8% in Shannon Park (Tract 205.0112.00, south of the MacKay Bridge at Windmill Road), with the city’s average unemployment rate at 6.3%. This is a 10.7% spread, which I’ve separated into 5 fields with a 3% spread in each.  By showing 5 different unemployment rate groups, this spread gives a sharp level of detail, but on the other hand it creates a patchwork-quilt of colors with few discernible patterns.  Projecting data requires balancing data against visuals – if the data is not represented properly, then patterns may not emerge, or the patterns that do emerge may be misleading altogether.  Be sure, therefore, to click through to the original data files for each tract (links are provided on the tract’s data boxes).

And now, some observations on this map against others.  Thus far I’ve noted how Timberlea and the Sackvilles tend to stand out on census maps.  Both areas saw a significant decrease in population from 2001 to 2006, and my recent population density map shows that both areas are denser than their surrounding (more-)rural neighbours thanks to the network of highways spidering out from the peninsula.  What today’s map highlights is that both areas’ population decreases are mirrored by higher unemployment rates.  The areas may have a denser population than their surrounding census tracts, but people seem to be leaving (possibly to find work elsewhere?).

Base figures:

Population of Halifax in 2006: 372858
Labour force [persons ages 15+]: 309270
Unemployed persons in labour force: 13385
Unemployment Rate: 6.3%

Population of Nova Scotia in 2006: 913462
Labour force [persons ages 15+]: 756595
Unemployed persons in labour force: 43530
Unemployment Rate: 9.1%

Today’s maps visualizes population density in Halifax Regional Municipality as recorded in the 2006 Census of Canada.  This map demonstrates the clear urban-rural split in Halifax since the majority of census tracts outside of Halifax, Dartmouth and Bedford/Sackville have a population density of less than 500 people per square kilometre:

Until you zoom into Halifax’s urban core, all of HRM appears to be washed out in a dull blue-white haze.  By zooming down toward Halifax Harbour, however, we begin to see definite density patterns that run along major transportation corridors.  In Dartmouth, high population numbers track along Main Street until it meets the Forest Hills Parkway, where the numbers begin to dwindle as suburban HRM turns into rural countryside.  The same can be said of Highway 102 through Bedford and of Highway 101 at “the Sackvilles”: the population is situated very close to the highways, creeping out from the centre.  Even west of the peninsula, the only census tract with a population density greater than 500 people per kilometre is in Timberlea, along Highway 103.

As with other mapped projections of census tract data for Halifax, the usual caveats apply.  Keep in mind that we’re examining population figures for a part of Canada where tract configurations vary wildly.  Some tracts are only 5 square kilometres while others are over 1000 square kilometres; populations range from the hundreds to the thousands.  With this in mind, it is best to compare tract density figures only to their surrounding tracts, or to other tracts of a similar size.

Base Statistics:

• Population of Nova Scotia, 2006: 913,462
• Total Area of Nova Scotia, 2006: 52917.4571 square KM
  • Population Density: 17.3

• Population of Halifax, 2006: 372,858
• Total Area of Halifax, 2006: 5,495.6192 square KM
  • Population Density: 67.8

Given the fact that I am working with data from the 2006 Census Tracts, I decided it would be important to begin by plotting a map that shows the population of Halifax Regional Municipality per census tract (CT).

What’s important to understand when looking at this map is that these are representations of just whole numbers – we’re not looking at a population rate of decline or density.  StatCan’s census tracts, rather, are developed by a set of guidelines that take in account more than only population rates.  Boundaries should follow easily recognizably physical boundaries or major arteries and have populations between 2500 and 8000 (ideally around 4000); the areas must be as compact as possible; and the populations should ideally be homogeneous in terms of socio-economic conditions (source).  Therefore, CTs with lower populations on Halifax Peninsula are more likely indicative of latent socio-economic factors that promote lower densities that any sort of StatCan motive to consider these tracts as demanding special attention.

My next map, I think, will demonstrate density or growth rates.  There was upwards of an 11% population growth rate in the Clayton Park area between 2001 and 2006, but the area’s surround census tracts didn’t see nearly as large an increase – that might be interesting to demonstrate on a map.

Finally, if there is a lesson to be learned on the production of this map, it’s to avoid using a blue gradient for HRM since it blends so easily with the shoreline and ocean.  My next colours will be bolder, for sure.